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For They Know Not What They Do Being able to offer such empathy, while he himself must have been in such distress, certainly marks him out as a man of exceptional spiritual depth. His awareness of the human condition, his acceptance of that condition and his willingness to sacrifice himself to teach us about ourselves, elevated him to the position of God by the people who killed him. But his own personal, simple humanity is also very present in the ninth hour when he calls “My God, my God, why have you forsaken me” This cry presents a deeper sadness at his personal situation that must have ripped through him. In his despair and disappointment, in a world he saw as full of beauty and grace, this sadness must have deeply wounded him. Jesus recognised the duality of human nature, he saw the ultimate contradictions of the human experience. The tragedy and the irony of his own position cannot have escaped him, as he was executed for exulting love. As he died, he forgave his executioners. He spoke with his two comrades in death promising them eternal life. And we are told that Christ died for all of us and by believing in him our sins will always be forgiven. Attractive as this “get out of jail free” card might sound, I just don't buy it. Why should I be forgiven? Am I not responsible for my actions? Is not the perpetrator responsible for their crime. In certain cases of course a lack of knowledge must be excusable but when one knowingly transgresses, surely responsibility must pass with it. It is my view that to tresspass is to act in a manner that is counter to our own knowledge. As Unitarians we pride ourselves on a personal, rational, scientific, yet spiritual journey through life and as such we are probably better placed than many to explore the innate lack of awareness that struggles within each of us. Paul describes this inner conflict between knowledge and transgression in his letter to the Roman’s chapter 7 verse 15 when he says “I do not understand what I do. For what I want to do I do not do, but what I hate, I do. The Buddhists say, “that a good person confesses their sins, but an enlightened person acknowledges their lack of awareness”. As Aldus Huxley says in his book Island it’s Awareness, Awareness, Awareness that awakens the human soul. All this might seem like a rather roundabout way of getting to the main theme of my address. I want to talk about climate change and our knowledge or lack of knowledge of this pressing reality that challenges all of us. 2009 is a hugely important year for humanities connection with its environment. This December in Copenhagen we will attempt to agree on how we might respond to a problem of our own making, climate change. Just like King Belshazzar of Babylon the writing is on the wall. Just this week the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency said “if the world continues on the basis of today’s energy policies, the climate change impacts will be severe. We can no longer ignore the transgressions we are making. We can no longer ignore the damage we are doing. This beautiful, self regulating, life-giving planet of which we are all apart and whose destiny we ultimately follow, is straining from our collective lack of awareness. One invisible relationship that we must connect with is our bond with this molecule. Carbon dioxide. Over the next two slides I wanted to convince you of the science of climate change. It’s really very simple, it’s chemistry, and it starts with some unique properties of this very special molecule. Video clip showing the unique chemical properties of greenhouse gases and their ability to hold re-radiated long wave radiation in the Earth’s atmosphere. This second slide shows us the continuous measurement of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since the 1950s from mount Mauna Loa in Hawaii. The first thing we see in this graph is a global biological process called the carbon cycle. This is our planet breathing. In the little animation on top we can see summer growth followed by winter decay. This absorption and release of carbon dioxide is our planet breathing and is the very stuff of life. The second piece of information in this slide is the year on year increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Before industrialization, concentrations of CO2 were about 280 ppm. This has increased by over 30% in 250 years to nearly 390 ppm last year. When we take this unique quality of greenhouse gases to hold re-radiated long wave radiation and then increase their concentration in the atmosphere the chemistry of climate change is very simple to understand. There is no more doubt. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level. At the Massachusetts Institute of technology they ran one of the most comprehensive modeling programmes yet of how much hotter the Earth's climate will get in this century, and it shows that without rapid and massive action, the problem will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago - and could be even worse than that. The results offered two scenarios, 1. we decide to do something or 2. We don’t! If we do nothing the modeling predicted a median probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees. The implications of such a rapid warming are immense, with sealevel rise posing one of the most significant challenges. When we take a look for geological references to past sealevel changes our Earth’s oceans have changed enormously. 20,000 years ago at the height of the last ice age the world was about 6° centigrade colder than it is today. Back then, oceans were about 130 m lower than they are today and Ireland was covered in about 2 km of ice. If we go back further, to 3 million years ago, the earth was about 2° warmer and oceans were about 25 m higher than they are today. And if we go way back, 40 million years ago, to the Eocene when concentrations of CO2 were touching 1000 ppm temperatures were about 4° warmer than today and the oceans were about 70 m higher. Sealevel changes can happen quickly. After the last ice age about 14,000 years ago, sea level rose approximately 20 metres in 400 years, or about 1 metre every 20 years. I believe that this myth memory has been passed on to us in the west through the story of Noah and his ark. Back then the coastal areas of the world looked very different than today. Back then England was joined to mainland Europe by a land archaeologists now call Dogger Land. Extensive submarine archaeological studies have revealed a human inhabited world that was rapidly lost to the sea towards the end of the last ice age. People just like you and I witnessed the oceans rise before their very eyes. In February 2002 Dublin experienced a once in 100 year flooding event. The people of Ringsend and the East Wall were hugely affected. Current projections for sealevel rise are in a state of flux with scientists still trying to understand the dynamics of large land-based ice sheets. In a recent study by the Proudman Laboratory,in the UK sealevel rises of 1 to 1.5 metres by 2100 are predicted. When we look at the historic high water levels of Dublin over the last 100 years we see indeed that the events of February 2002 were extreme. But when we add half a metre of sealevel rise, this once in 100 year flooding event becomes a once every 10 years flooding event. And if we push sealevel by 1 m Ringsend is under water all the time. Such a change in sealevel poses huge challenges for significant national infrastructure. Take for example Shannon airport with 1 m rise in sea level, it underwater. Or the recent wastewater treatment facility in Galway Bay, Mutton Island. With 1 m rise in sea level it’s useless. Or in Derry both the railway and the airport are lost with 1 m rise in sea level. So what are the implications of significant melting of the worlds ice sheets? If Greenland was to lose all its ice we would experience sealevel rise to the magnitude of about 7 m. If the West Antarctic, the piece that point up towards South America, was to lose all its ice, oceans would rise a further 7 m. If the world was to lose all its ice, as it did 40 million years ago during the Eocene, the world’s oceans would rise over 70 m. Dr. James Hansen of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and one of the world’s leading experts on climate change science is suggesting that a rise in sea level of more than 5 metres by 2095 is possible. The impacts of continuous sealevel rise for Dublin are enormous. With Greenland and the Western Antarctic losing half their ice our city’s coastline changes enormously. At 3 m the city port is facing significant challenges. At 7 m large parts of our city are reclaimed by the sea. As the ice sheets continue to melt, bridging the river becomes a real difficulty. And salt water reaches beyond the M 50 at 14 m. Mind you our church will almost have a sea view! Noah was given an enormous task. To suffer the sins of his generation, as well saving God’s creation. The challenge for our generation is nonetheless momentous. To imagine we can do this with minimum inconvenience by just plugging out mobile phone chargers or switching our TV of standby is naïve to the extreme. We are the first generation to experience such enormous global environmental change. We can choose to carry on as we always have or we can choose to renew our covenant with this world. But one thing is for sure. If we continue our current trends there will be no forgiveness.
Gavin Heart |